Picture this: Your subscriber’s credit card payment fails. They receive a notice and attempt to fix it, but the process becomes unnecessarily difficult. Frustrated, they cancel the subscription altogether. 

Or this: Your subscriber’s credit card payment fails. You send them an alert, but they didn’t notice and don’t update their card details. Their membership doesn’t renew and their subscription gets cancelled.

Sorry, it’s not even Halloween and I’ve already started with the horror stories. I’m Niraj Naik, VP of Product Management at Recurly. Welcome back to Product Perspectives! 

The State of Subscriptions report shows that nearly half (48.7%) of the subscriber lifecycle takes place after a missed payment has been recovered. So, if you’re manually tackling failed payments or still using outdated retry methods, you’re likely missing out on significant revenue. 

This is where intelligent retry logic comes in. It minimizes involuntary churn by retrying failed payments at optimal times, maximizing the likelihood of success. Providing effortless renewals for subscribers and merchants alike. 

What is intelligent retry logic?

The intelligent retries model is a sophisticated tool powered by machine learning that analyzes data points from millions of transactions to decide the optimal time to retry a failed payment. 

Gone are the days of generic, timeline-heavy retries. Instead, it’s about personalization and precision. Whether soft or hard declines, intelligent retries tailor retry schedules to maximize recovery chances.

How we retry payments at Recurly

Recurly’s system takes intelligent retry logic a step further. We employ data from hundreds of millions of data points from subscription businesses like yours to create customized retry schedules designed for success. Here’s how it works:

  • Analysis of transaction variables: We identify patterns in failed payments by analyzing the payment type, processor response codes, and the customer’s payment history

  • Optimized retry scheduling: We determine the timing that increases the likelihood of payment success — retries on paydays or after temporary holds can yield significantly better results

  • Adaptability over time: The machine learning algorithm continuously learns and adapts as new data comes in, fine-tuning strategies to stay up to date with payment trends and customer behaviors

  • Tailored solutions for each failure: Soft declines are prioritized for automated retries with custom timing, while hard declines are flagged for more aggressive recovery strategies, such as manual intervention or a billing update request

Whenever a merchant asks me about the most effective method to reduce churn, its payment retries. I mean, billions of data points can’t be wrong, can they?

Understanding decline types and their handling

To fully grasp the value of intelligent retries, it’s crucial to understand payment failure categories. Not all declines are equal, and each requires a unique recovery plan.

Soft declines are often temporary and fixable. Common reasons include:

  • Insufficient funds

  • Temporary holds

  • An issuer's request

Recurly’s intelligent retries optimize retry schedules for soft declines, avoiding repeated attempts and timing retries when success is most likely.

Hard declines are more severe and typically final without intervention. These occur due to:

  • Stolen cards

  • Canceled accounts

  • Invalid card numbers

While retries are less likely to succeed here, exceptions occur when customers update billing information or switch to alternative payment methods. Recurly can adapt accordingly, ensuring flexibility.

💡Head over to our product documentation to review all the retry exceptions and specific retry schedules. 

Key benefits of the intelligent retry logic

By now, you’re probably convinced that retry magic is worth it. But what’s in it for your business?

  • Maximized revenue recovery: Intelligent retries significantly reduce revenue loss by targeting the perfect retry timing to see more successful payments

  • Reduced customer churn: Frustration stemming from payment issues often leads to canceled subscriptions — retrying payments ensure customers have a seamless experience

  • Enhanced operational efficiency: Gone are the days of trial-and-error; intelligent retries automate the process, saving time and resources for busy businesses

  • Data-driven Insights: Recurly’s model leverages advanced analytics to fix immediate problems and provide actionable insights into payment trends

  • Works with other methods: The system integrates seamlessly with other recovery methods, such as dunning communication strategies, to create a holistic solution

While intelligent retries are powerful, they’re even more effective when paired with other churn strategies such as account updaters, expired card management, dunning campaigns, and backup payment methods. 

The image above shows the recovered invoice amount that was previously saved and paid during a specific period — see how all these methods create a safety net for revenue recovery. 

Now, do you think it’s worth a try? 

Failed payments account for a significant portion of involuntary churn, a costly problem for any subscription business. In fact, last year our merchants recovered $1.3 billion in revenue that otherwise would’ve been lost to churn. That’s massive.

Recurly’s intelligent retry model is here to handle all types of declines. It doesn’t just guess the best time to retry — it predicts, using historical data, patterns, and real-time analytics. It’s like giving your payment retries a sixth sense.

Learn more about our intelligent retries here.