This blog article is in collaboration with Clearco.

Annual events like Prime Day, Black Friday, or Cyber Monday (BFCM) can bring in a surprising amount of shoppers for ecommerce brands. Last year’s Amazon Prime Day generated trillions of hits to Amazon’s webstore, with the sales figures to match. BFCM sales topped $9.3 billion on Shopify in 2023, with a whopping $4.2 million made every minute, and Stripe processed $18.6 billion in a single weekend. For subscription brand owners, this can be doubly true. Subscription box sales also skyrocket on holidays like Mother’s Day or Father’s Day, with over 70% of younger generations interested in getting their loved ones a subscription box or brand!

Staying ahead of the curve on BFCM orders can be a tricky business for ecommerce sales. Although subscription brands have existing subscribers giving them some idea of approaching demand, additional inventory still needs to be ordered ahead of time. Deposits to suppliers can be required as much as eight months in advance, and lead times may be long, especially if the goods are customized, tricky to produce, or coming from suppliers with potential shipping delays. 

Staying ahead of major shopping days may mean hopping onto an agreement with a supplier much earlier than you’d expect. Considering the sheer volume of sales seen on major shopping days, it’s best to be prepared! The deadline to order inventory for these dates can sneak up fast–Prime Day, for example, closed its applications for Prime Day Deal sellers on May 3, two months before its July 16 event. 

Although factors beyond your control can delay the arrival of goods, planning for big shopping events can go a long way. Catching the wave of BFCM shoppers could make a real difference in the sales of your subscription brand. Here’s how to make the most of the shopping season:

How to calculate how much BFCM inventory to order for your subscription brand

There are a number of options available for subscription brands prepping inventory for sale. On the simplest side,  automations, like those found in Apple’s Shortcuts tool or apps like IFTT/Tasker can be added automatically to the business’ calendar at certain reorder intervals–say, when the stock level of a popular product gets below a certain number of units, a certain number of daily sales are hit, or the date is within a certain number of days from a holiday sale. Many sellers order BFCM inventory in the summer months. 

More robust tools, such as demand forecasting, take historical sales data into account when predicting future sales. This is especially useful for subscription brands, which may already have data on the buying behavior of subscribers. Recurring revenue from subscriptions can be useful for cash flow, and even more useful when optimizing inventory levels for BFCM sales. 

Ordering too much can impact inventory turnover (and storage costs), but ordering too little can mean missed opportunities for sales. These lost sales are known as stockout costs, and can hit subscription brands especially hard. After all, it’s not just one sale getting missed–it’s three, six, or even a year’s worth of subscription time! Forecasting demand helps brands hit optimal inventory levels, and starting early means some time to “play around” with the levels and lead times before BFCM hits. 

How should subscription brands spend on BFCM inventory?

BFCM is often a record-breaking day of sales, but it’s still a good idea to base purchasing decisions on relevant factors, including:

  • Demand for the items, in units (for example, 400 boxes each year)

  • Setup/ordering costs, including how much the item itself costs and how much time or money must be spent to order it 

  • Production/carrying costs of holding the items in your inventory

Giving some thought to the factors above can help your brand find an optimal BFCM order quantity or an optimal reorder point-giving your brand more insight on how much, and when, to buy. The final consideration is working capital. Especially when ordering for events months in advance, ecommerce brands should not only build strong relationships with suppliers (by paying for goods quickly), but also keep track of how much working capital they have available to pay. Too few items is a problem for big shopping days–but not having working capital could hurt the future success of your brand. 

How can subscription brands get investment and funding to scale inventory?

Accessing additional funds, such as through Invoice Funding, helps ecommerce subscription brands access more inventory when it counts. Subscription brand owners should use their resources to find the most optimal levels of inventory, order well in advance, and make sure the bill is feasible to pay. Taking some planning steps allows brands to make the most of the shopping season’s biggest days–and get a jump on the year’s hottest sale dates for subscription brands. 

How the right subscription management platform supports you during peak seasons

As you prepare for BFCM, partnering with a subscription management and recurring billing platform, like Recurly, becomes indispensable to support large sales volume. Scalability is effortlessly managed, allowing businesses to adjust their operations for increased demand with automated billing processes, timely transactions, and accurate inventories. During Cyber Monday 2023, Recurly processed over $35.5M in transactions and helped customers get a 19% sign-up increase through coupons (+40%) and gift cards (+54%) vs. the previous year.